300,000 children missing from education in England, with vulnerable pupils hit hardest, EPI estimates in new research

New research published today by the Education Policy Institute estimates that up to 300,000 children aged five to 15 may be missing from education in 2023, a 40 per cent increase from 2017. The analysis, which compares GP registrations with school registrations, also finds that teenagers are more likely to be missing from education.

Through following a single cohort, EPI research finds that over 50,000 pupils, or around eight per cent, leave the education system by Year 11.

The pupils who leave the education system by Year 11 are more likely to be vulnerable and already marginalised according to EPI, with pupils from traveller communities nine times more likely to leave school early, and those who are persistently disadvantaged twice as likely compared with pupils overall.

The report recommends that the government require schools to record reasons for deregistering pupils. It also recommends using existing data from health, education and local authority data systems to ensure that vulnerable children do not fall through the cracks, including making progress on plans to create a mandatory register for children not in school.

By comparing GP registrations with school registrations and data on pupils in registered home education for the first time, EPI finds that up to 300,000 children may be missing entirely from education in 2023, a 40 per cent increase from 2017. Up to 400,000 children are estimated to be not in school, a 50 per cent increase. EPI said that according to available data, the number of formally registered home-educated children has increased by over 100 per cent from 2017 to almost 95,000 children in 2023.

Additionally, using Department for Education data, findings show that over 50,000 pupils ever registered in a state school, or around eight per cent of the cohort, leave the system and are not in a mainstream school, alternative provision or an independent school by Year 11. Schools are not required to record the reasons for pupils leaving their rolls, and EPI said it does not know how many of these exits are due to migration out of the country.

Certain groups are at a higher risk of exiting the English education system permanently:

‣ 75 per cent of traveller pupils and 50 per cent of gypsy/Roma pupils.

‣ Almost a fifth of persistently disadvantaged pupils (those who are eligible for free school meals for at least 80 per cent of relevant terms) and permanently excluded pupils.

‣ Approximately one in eight care-experienced pupils.

The number of state system exits rises significantly through secondary school and peaks in Year 10 before pupils sit their GCSEs. Around a fifth of all exits through the primary and secondary phases occur in Year 10.

Finally, the report looks at pupils who leave a mainstream state school for at least one term but are reregistered by Year 11. Pupils with social, emotional, or mental health difficulties and care-experienced children were more than twice as likely to miss a period of mainstream education during the primary or secondary phases, compared with the overall cohort.

“The government must work across departments and data systems to address data gaps and ensure the necessary support is provided to those children who need it.”

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