300,000 children missing from education in England, with vulnerable pupils hit hardest, EPI estimates in new research

New research published today by the Education Policy Institute estimates that up to 300,000 children aged five to 15 may be missing from education in 2023, a 40 per cent increase from 2017. The analysis, which compares GP registrations with school registrations, also finds that teenagers are more likely to be missing from education.

Through following a single cohort, EPI research finds that over 50,000 pupils, or around eight per cent, leave the education system by Year 11.

The pupils who leave the education system by Year 11 are more likely to be vulnerable and already marginalised according to EPI, with pupils from traveller communities nine times more likely to leave school early, and those who are persistently disadvantaged twice as likely compared with pupils overall.

The report recommends that the government require schools to record reasons for deregistering pupils. It also recommends using existing data from health, education and local authority data systems to ensure that vulnerable children do not fall through the cracks, including making progress on plans to create a mandatory register for children not in school.

By comparing GP registrations with school registrations and data on pupils in registered home education for the first time, EPI finds that up to 300,000 children may be missing entirely from education in 2023, a 40 per cent increase from 2017. Up to 400,000 children are estimated to be not in school, a 50 per cent increase. EPI said that according to available data, the number of formally registered home-educated children has increased by over 100 per cent from 2017 to almost 95,000 children in 2023.

Additionally, using Department for Education data, findings show that over 50,000 pupils ever registered in a state school, or around eight per cent of the cohort, leave the system and are not in a mainstream school, alternative provision or an independent school by Year 11. Schools are not required to record the reasons for pupils leaving their rolls, and EPI said it does not know how many of these exits are due to migration out of the country.

Certain groups are at a higher risk of exiting the English education system permanently:

‣ 75 per cent of traveller pupils and 50 per cent of gypsy/Roma pupils.

‣ Almost a fifth of persistently disadvantaged pupils (those who are eligible for free school meals for at least 80 per cent of relevant terms) and permanently excluded pupils.

‣ Approximately one in eight care-experienced pupils.

The number of state system exits rises significantly through secondary school and peaks in Year 10 before pupils sit their GCSEs. Around a fifth of all exits through the primary and secondary phases occur in Year 10.

Finally, the report looks at pupils who leave a mainstream state school for at least one term but are reregistered by Year 11. Pupils with social, emotional, or mental health difficulties and care-experienced children were more than twice as likely to miss a period of mainstream education during the primary or secondary phases, compared with the overall cohort.

EPI recommends that the government builds on its existing plans to create a register of ‘children not in school’. By integrating data from education, health and other relevant administrative data sources, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) could maintain a more complete register on all children in contact with services in England.

Schools should be required to record reasons for removing pupils from their rolls, according to EPI. The institute said this would allow better oversight of illegal exclusions, including off-rolling; the role played by mental health issues or disengagement from education in system exits; along with a better understanding of the proportion of system exits related to out-migration from the country.

Further research into best practices for preventing, engaging with, providing for, and supporting children missing or who go missing from education is necessary, with the EPI stating that current evidence is weak. The institute claims that more investigation into and piloting of interventions to prevent vulnerable young people from becoming disengaged, as well as best practice for engaging children and families who have not interacted with the education system, is needed.

EPI said that ONS must continue its work to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of population estimates. No data source can currently provide a definitive answer on the number of children in England, let alone the number of children missing from education. Given the role population estimates play in policymaking and resource allocation, combined with wider evidence that local authorities are often unaware of the number of children in their area, the ONS must redouble its efforts to provide timely, accurate, and reliable estimates of the child population.

Whitney Crenna-Jennings, associate director of mental health, wellbeing and inclusion at the Education Policy Institute said: “Many thousands of children are missing or go missing from education in England – this is a critical issue that demands our attention. Whilst some may be receiving a suitable education outside of formal settings or in different countries, this research shows that the children who go missing are often amongst the most vulnerable in our society, potentially at risk of harm and poor outcomes.

“Our findings reveal the potential scale of the issue as well as the urgent need for comprehensive data on children and targeted interventions to ensure that every child receives their legal entitlement to education.

“The government must work across departments and data systems to address data gaps and ensure the necessary support is provided to those children who need it.”